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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Saturday morning, March 6, 2021
Heightened avalanche conditions exist and there is MODERATE danger on steep slopes in the backcountry. Although becoming less likely, people could trigger large avalanches failing 2 to 4 feet deep on a buried persistent weak layer near the ground in some areas. Very steep rocky slopes, and previously drifted slopes with shallow overall snow cover are the most suspect. Warm temperatures, solar heating, and possible green-housing, will cause elevated wet avalanche conditions during the heat of the day on many slopes and at all elevations.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Allen Foss of Preston, ID was killed in an avalanche Saturday, February 20, near Sherman Peak. Please consider supporting the Foss family during this difficult time.
Weather and Snow
We're expecting another very warm day, and strong southerly winds will devour the snow in exposed, windward terrain. It's already 32°F this morning at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, and there is 71 inches of total snow and 85% of normal SWE. South winds increased significantly overnight and are currently blowing 45 mph with 60 mph gusts from the south-southeast at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station and temperatures are holding steady at 32°F. We're expecting some clouds, but mostly sunny skies, fairly strong south-southwest winds continuing through the afternoon, and even warmer temperatures in the mountains today. Temperatures at 8500' will top out at around 45°F and the wind will ventilate, but solar warming and green-housing could cause some sheltered slopes to heat up dramatically. At lower elevations, temperatures could rise well into the 50s. Expect continuing warmth and plenty of sun tomorrow and Monday. Looks like thing will cool down and some snow is possible Tuesday.
In some places, outlying rocky slopes that did not naturally avalanche in February and in areas with thin weak snow cover, large and dangerous avalanches still might be triggered remotely, or from a distance. Deeply buried weak, sugary, faceted snow is widespread across the zone. It appears to be dormant in most areas currently, but dry loose faceted snow near the ground and depth hoar is exceptionally devious, and it is not to be trusted.
I went into the backcountry near Beaver Mountain Tuesday to have a look at the snow, and this is what I found.
Recent Avalanches
A rider remotely triggered an avalanche on a drifted slope somewhere in the Elk Valley Area Sunday (2-28-2021). but details are a bit limited. A video of the avalanche was posted on Twitter HERE.
We've observed several recent natural long running wet loose avalanches on south, southeast, and southwest facing slopes in the zone in the past few days.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although it is gradually becoming more unlikely for people to trigger avalanches, any potential avalanches could still be large and very dangerous. Buried persistent weak layers consisting of sugary faceted snow are widespread across the Logan Zone, and the threat of large and deadly avalanches failing on weak snow near the ground remains quite real. Although suspect weak layers appear to be dormant in many areas, the sugary faceted snow near the ground is still dry, and it is likely to continue to be devious. People might trigger a large deep slab avalanche from a thinner part of the slab. As avalanches become less likely, they will remain possible for people to trigger on very steep slopes, in rocky terrain, and on slopes with generally thin snow cover.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
Faceted snow and even depth hoar like this is widespread across the Logan Zone, and it exists on slopes facing every direction and at all elevations... Maybe it's dormant, but I'm not planning to test my luck in steep terrain anytime soon..
  • Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With very warm midday temperatures and potential green-housing, loose wet avalanches entraining saturated snow are possible, especially on steep sheltered slopes. Temperatures will likely surpass 50 degrees in Logan Canyon and in other low elevation terrain today, and shady lower and mid elevation slopes could become saturated and avalanche prone in the midday warmth. Even a small avalanche could be enough to cause problems, especially on steep slopes with trees or other terrain traps below. In some areas, smaller wet avalanches overrunning a slopes with buried persistent weak layers could step down into older snow near the ground and cause much larger and more destructive avalanches.
  • Avoid travel on and under slopes with saturated snow in the heat of the day
  • Stay well back from cornices as they can break much further back than you expect, and avalanches are possible on slopes below.
Additional Information
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together. HERE
Please keep practicing with the Beacon Training Park at the Franklin Basin Trailhead. Test yourself and your riding partners. It is free, fun, and easy to use.
General Announcements
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram, or @UAClogan on Twitter.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 Monday morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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