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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, March 5, 2021
Heightened avalanche conditions exist and there is MODERATE danger on steep slopes in the backcountry. Although becoming less likely, people could trigger large avalanches failing 2 to 4 feet deep on a buried persistent weak layer near the ground. Warm temperatures and solar heating will cause elevated wet avalanche conditions on sunny slopes and at lower elevations.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Allen Foss of Preston, ID was killed in an avalanche Saturday, February 20, near Sherman Peak. Please consider supporting the Foss family during this difficult time.
Weather and Snow
28°F this morning is the low temperature at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, and there is 73 inches of total snow and 84% of normal SWE. A consistent breeze is blowing 15 mph from the west-northwest at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station and it's 27°F. We're expecting sunny skies and continued warmth in the mountains today. Temperatures at 8500' will top out at around 45°F today, andat lower elevations temperatures could rise into the 50s. Expect continuing warmth and plenty of sun this weekend. We'll probably see some clouds and it'll be windy in the mountains tomorrow. The next chance for some new snow looks like around Tuesday.
In some places, outlying rocky slopes that did not naturally avalanche in February and in areas with thin weak snow cover, large and dangerous avalanches still might be triggered remotely, or from a distance. Deeply buried weak, sugary, faceted snow is widespread across the zone. It appears to be dormant in most areas currently, but dry loose faceted snow near the ground and depth hoar is exceptionally devious, and it is not to be trusted.
I went into the backcountry near Beaver Mountain Tuesday to have a look at the snow, and this is what I found.
Recent Avalanches
A rider remotely triggered an avalanche on a drifted slope somewhere in the Elk Valley Area Sunday (2-28-2021). but details are a bit limited. A video of the avalanche was posted on Twitter HERE.
We've observed several recent natural long running wet loose avalanches on south, southeast, and southwest facing slopes in the zone in the past few days.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although it is gradually becoming more unlikely for people to trigger avalanches, any potential avalanches could still be large and very dangerous. Buried persistent weak layers consisting of sugary faceted snow are widespread across the Logan Zone, and the threat of large and deadly avalanches failing on weak snow near the ground remains quite real. Although suspect weak layers appear to be dormant in many areas, the sugary faceted snow near the ground is still dry, and it is likely to continue to be devious. People might trigger a large deep slab avalanche from a thinner part of the slab. As avalanches become less likely, they will remain possible for people to trigger on very steep slopes, in rocky terrain, and on slopes with generally thin snow cover.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
  • Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With very warm midday temperatures and only light winds, loose wet avalanches entraining saturated snow are possible on steep sunny slopes again today. Temperatures will approach 50 degrees in Logan Canyon today, and even shady lower and mid elevation slopes could be in play in the midday warmth. Even a small avalanche could be enough to cause problems, especially on steep slopes with trees or other terrain traps below. Smaller wet avalanches overrunning a slope with buried persistent weak layers could step down into older snow near the ground and cause a much larger and more destructive avalanche.
  • Avoid travel on and under slopes with saturated snow in the heat of the day
  • Stay well back from cornices as they can break much further back than you expect, and avalanches are possible on slopes below.
Additional Information
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together. HERE
Please keep practicing with the Beacon Training Park at the Franklin Basin Trailhead. Test yourself and your riding partners. It is free, fun, and easy to use.
General Announcements
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram, or @UAClogan on Twitter.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 tomorrow morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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