Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest               

Introduction:  Good morning!  This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Friday, February 18th, 2005 at 8:30 am.  This bulletin is sponsored in part by Western Spirit, offering cycling adventures in Moab and beyond, proud sponsors of the Friends of the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center.  This advisory will expire in 24 hours.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

 

General Conditions:

While we only got a dusting of snow last night, there is a storm heading our way this afternoon that is supposed to drop between 11” and 20” by Sunday afternoon.  Right now that breakable rain crust buried under the top 3-5” of snow is still there up to 10,600’.  Expect to find powder conditions below tree line and a mix of powder and wind affected conditions at or above tree line.  Visibility will continue to decrease today as the storm moves in.

The road to the Geyser Pass Trailhead is in great shape, thanks to the Grand County Roads Department.  4WD is recommended and chains might help as well. 

 

Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’):  44” at the SNOTEL, 51” at the stake, it is 27 degrees at the TH at 6:00 am. 

Pre-Laurel Peak (11,700’): AARRGGHH!  Back to the drawing board on this one, hopefully by Monday evening we’ll have read-outs.   

Gold Basin and South Mountain:  Around 80” to 85” of settled snow on the ground. 

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)

Winter storm warning in effect from noon MST today to 6 am MST Sunday.

We have a large storm system moving into the area today from the SW.   It is expected to bring strong SW winds (read wind loading!) and lots of new snow over the next few days.  Cold temperatures, and poor visibility can also be expected.   

Friday:  Snow showers are likely this morning and as the day goes on expect the intensity to increase.  We should see accumulations between 1” and 3”.  Winds will be coming from the South at 10 – 20 mph.  Highs in the 30s.

 Friday night:  Snow increasing as the meat of the storm hits us.  Expect accumulations of 4-7”.  Winds will shift to the Southwest and moving at 10-15 mph (still enough to move snow).  Lows in the 20s.

Saturday:  More snow and more wind!  Expect accumulations of 3-5”.  Winds will be out of the Southwest still, and they will be stronger at 20-30 mph.  Highs in the 30s.

Avalanche Conditions:

Even though we did not get more snow last night, we still have at least three persistent weak layers lurking in the upper part of our snow pack (where our force as skiers and riders can be easily transmitted).  There is the rain crust that formed at the end of our the storm over the weekend with the new snow from yesterday on top of it, and below that we have the dense heavy layer that is sitting on a light and fluffy layer that is sitting on a buried surface hoar layer!!!  YIKES!  As we continue to get more snow that load on these layers will increase and we will probably see some natural slides occur.  Right now many of our signs of instability are hidden by the newest 2” of snow.  We still felt some collapsing and heard whumphing noises while we were out yesterday.  We also saw some great shooting cracks propagate from our skis on some of our small test slopes.  North thru East slopes are loaded already loaded and expect them to become even more loaded as this storm rolls through.  What concerns me the most today are trigger points (places where we are more likely to cause failures in the weak layers) and the wind loaded slopes.  Steep convex rollovers, shallow rock outcroppings where a skiers weight can transfer energy deeper into the snow pack, trees and tender cornices are my greatest concern.  The snow pack is under a precarious balance right now; all it is looking for is some added stress (a.k.a. you or the new snow that we are going to get!) to set it loose.   

The Bottom Line for today:  An avalanche danger of CONSIDERABLE on slopes greater than 35 degrees on all N-E aspects at all elevations. For the rest of the La Sal’s, I am going to rate the avalanche danger at MODERATE.  Keep in mind that as we get more snow this danger will INCREASE! 

 

 

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

There are Nordic tracks set to Geyser Pass and into Gold Basin; however as this storm rolls through they will soon disappear.