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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, December 25, 2022
The avalanche danger is rated at MODERATE today.
Human triggered avalanches are possible but not likely.
Upper elevation steep slopes that face north through southeast which have a recent deposit of wind drifted snow are the most likely place to trigger an avalanche.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The weather headline is the warm temperatures we are experiencing. Most mountain locations are in the upper 20s and have been for the last 24 hours. The wind is from the west with moderate speeds along the highest terrain and light speeds in the canyons and valleys.
Mountain Weather: Warm temperatures will continue today and will be even warmer on Monday. Wind will be generally light from the northwest today and switching to the southwest on Monday. We'll see partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies the next two days. A series of storms still look like they are on track with the first one moving in Tuesday. These should bring a decent amount of snow to our area.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Your biggest avalanche threat is triggering an avalanche that breaks into the November Persistent Weak Layer (DETAILS HERE). The chances for triggering a slide are becoming less but consequences remain high.
The most likely place to trigger something would be upper elevation north through southeast facing steep slopes where the wind has deposited a fresh drift or slab of snow. Chances are less on west and northwest facing slopes but avalanches are still possible. The safest bet is to continue to stay off slopes steeper than 30˚ until the Persistent Weak Layer is stable.
For some insight on a Moderate avalanche danger rating with a Persistent Weak Layer, read THIS BLOG POST BY FORECASTER ERIC TRENBEATH.
Additional Information
SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS
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INSTAGRAM: SKYLINE_AVALANCHE
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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