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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 22, 2025
The danger is MODERATE on steep slopes facing W-N-E near and above treeline, and on northerly aspects below. In these areas deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible. The danger is greatest on steep slopes near treeline that face N-NE.

A MODERATE danger exists for human triggered avalanches involving old hard slabs of wind drifted snow on steep, northerly aspects above treeline. Look for and avoid, stiff, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. Drifts form on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features and they may sound or feel hollow underneath.
South facing terrain has generally LOW danger.
Low
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They will not be working on the Loop Road today.
Geyser Pass Road: Grand County plowed on Thursday.
Grooming Conditions: I packed and groomed all trails from Gold Basin to Geyser Pass on Thursday with the roller. Conditions will be good for cross country skiing, but not great for skating. There is no classic track.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 121" Depth at Gold Basin: 52"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 20-25 G30 Temp: 30° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 119%
Weather
It's balmy, breezy, and cloudy up there this morning as the last in a series of winter storms tracks by to the north. We're going to be left out of the action on this one with the exception of westerly winds gusting to 30 mph along ridge tops. High temperatures will climb into the upper 30's. Clouds decrease overnight and winds shift to the northwest where they'll continue their breezy assault. Sunday will be sunny and warm kicking off an extended dry period with very warm temperatures on tap for the upcoming week.
General Conditions
March has brought the best conditions of the season with over 3 feet of new snow at 4.0 inches of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). This has made for some great turning and riding but you know what happens when the sun comes out. All sun exposed slopes are crusted over while south and westerly winds over the past few days have also damaged the snow surface. Some south aspects have been scoured right back down to the rocks. Keeping their slope angles low, Tim Mathews and Jason Ramsdell found good snow yesterday on a northeast aspect near treeline (see their observation here). This is the zone that remains the bullseye for triggering an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer and although the likelihood is decreasing, we are continuing to avoid steep slopes in these areas.
Snow cover in Gold Basin is finally looking pretty good, while many exposed southerly aspects have been stripped back down to the rocks.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
Riders over on the Manti Skyline are having close calls with deep avalanches and full burials. They have a similar snowpack.
Chis Benson reported this large avalanche in Upper Beaver Basin. A result of the last storm event, this NE facing path avalanched to the ground earlier this season and the snowpack remained shallow and weak in this zone. This type of avalanche remains a concern on steep northerly aspects right around treeline that have a weak and shallow snowpack.
See the complete avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
If you've been following along, you're tired of hearing about persistent weak layers of faceted snow. So are we. This is the time of year when we are usually able to put this problem to bed but with such a dry season prior to Valentine's Day, the entire snowpack had become loose, weak, and faceted, especially near treeline and below on W-N-E aspects. Since February 14, several storms have built a well connected cohesive slab 2-3 feet thick on top of these faceted weak layers. These layers are very slow to heal but the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is decreasing. This is largely due to the strength of the over-riding slab, and how deeply buried the weak layers are. Shallower snowpack areas are the most dangerous, and likely trigger points are steep convexities, shallow rocky areas, and thin slab margins.
In my travels on Thursday I dug on a north aspect below treeline at 10,400'. In the photos below you can clearly see the weak, faceted snow underneath the over-riding slab. For the first time since Valentine's Day my extended column test produced no results, or ECTX. This indicates that avalanches are becoming more difficult to trigger but this is just one sample in one location. Knowing what's underneath, it's still a gamble, and I'm going to continue to hold my cards close.
The above photo illustrates a dense 4-1 finger hard slab over top of a fist hard, weak layer. The entire snowpack from the fist layer down is faceted. It's not a good looking set up.
For the first time since Valentine's Day, an extended column test produced no results (ECTX).
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It may still be possible to trigger an old hard wind slab that formed during the week. You are most likely to encounter them on northerly aspects above treeline. Wind slabs are often recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and they may sound or feel hollow underneath. Slabs of wind drifted snow also overly buried persistent weak layers. In theses areas, a triggered wind slab could step down causing a deeper and much more dangerous avalanche. Avoiding steep, wind drifted, northerly aspects remains the best policy.
Additional Information
Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.