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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Paige Pagnucco
Issued by Paige Pagnucco on
Friday morning, February 5, 2021
A powerful, quick hitting winter storm with heavy snowfall and strong winds will create very dangerous avalanche conditions and HIGH danger on drifted upper and mid elevation slopes today. TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED. Avalanches of wind drifted snow are possible at all elevations. Buried persistent weak layers consisting of sugary faceted snow are widespread across the Logan Zone, and the serious threat of deadly avalanches is quite real.
  • Natural avalanches are likely.
  • Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
  • Best option: It's a great day to ride at a resort or, if you're on a sled, play in the meadows far away from steep terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains of northern Utah from 5am this morning until 5am Saturday morning with heavy snowfall and strong westerly winds forecast. Upper elevations could receive between 14-20” of additional snow today on top of the 4” that fell overnight. West-southwest winds are blowing around 20-30 mph with gusts in the 40’s, and it's 11°F, with a -10°F wind chill value at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. Today will be VERY stormy in the mountains with heavy snowfall and strong winds. 8500' high temperatures should reach around 24°F, but might feel much colder with the wind chill.
*Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist on drifted slopes in the backcountry, and both natural and human triggered avalanches are likely today.*
I was pleased to see no tracks on many popular steep slopes during the week - places like Cornice Ridge. These slopes harbor very weak snow and will likely avalanche if you ride on or below them. There are lots of fun places to ride well away from avalanche terrain. *A sobering statistic - 10 people have died in avalanches in the U.S. in the past 6 days.
On Monday we went up to the Naomi Peak Area to check out a large natural avalanche in Castle Rock that looks like it ran early Saturday before anybody could get up in the area. Here is our video....
Recent Avalanches
Tragically, a skier was killed in an avalanche on Square Top in the backcountry above Park City on Saturday (1-30-21). Accident Report
Locally: A party of riders remote triggered a couple large avalanches in the Logan Peak Area Tuesday, (2-2-2021). One, running into Mill Hollow, was 7 or 8 feet deep and pulled out all the season's snow to the ground.
  • Sunday (1-31-2021), There was a close call near Steam Mill Lake. Details are limited, but a snowmobiler triggered a large avalanche and apparently escaped harm.
  • Saturday (1-30-2021), Riders triggered a good sized avalanche on the east face of Doubletop Mountain (or Gun Sight). Nobody was caught, but another sizable avalanche sympathetically released, and both avalanches crossed the party's previous tracks on the slope.
  • There were numerous avalanches locally and across the Utah mountains in the past few days. Visit our avalanche list HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Heavy snowfall and strong winds today will add yet more weight to slopes that may already be near the tipping point. Very weak sugary or faceted snow is widespread across the region, and natural avalanches are likely where a slab of more cohesive snow has formed on top of the weak snow. Large natural avalanches are likely today, especially during periods of rapid accumulation, as heavy snowfall overloads slopes with poor snow structure or unstable snow.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
  • Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than about 30 degrees!
  • Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
These large faceted snow grains make up a nasty buried persistent weak layer that is widespread in the Logan Zone. It exists on slopes at all elevations across the zone. (Stump Hollow, 1-30-2021)
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Westerly winds yesterday and overnight drifted fresh snow into lee slope avalanche starting zones, and built drifts and wind slabs on steep slopes at upper and mid elevations. Strong winds today will continue to create thick cohesive slabs and natural avalanches of wind drifted snow are likely, especially where drifts have built on top of a buried persistent weak layer.
  • Wind slabs are often rounded and chalky looking drifts, and they can sound and feel hollow and drum-like when you walk on them.
  • Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge tops and in and around terrain features like gullies, scoops, cliff bands, and sub ridges.
  • Cornices are starting to grow with the recent strong winds. Stay well back from the edge as they can break much further back than you expect.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Natural avalanches will be most likely during periods of particularly heavy snowfall.
Additional Information
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together. HERE
Please keep practicing with the Beacon Training Park at the Franklin Basin Trailhead. Test yourself and your riding partners. It is free, fun, and easy to use.
General Announcements
Thanks to the generous support of our local resorts, Ski Utah, and Backcountry, discount lift tickets are now available. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available here.
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 tomorrow morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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