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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 12, 2022
UNUSUAL AND DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH ALL ZONES IN UTAH AND MOST OF COLORADO!
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing NW-N-NE-E and human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer 1'-2' feet deep are likely. A MODERATE danger for triggering this type of avalanche exists on W facing slopes. Most S facing terrain has LOW danger.
Low
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Considerable
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Weather and Snow
It's going to be a beautiful day in the mountains with sunny skies, light NW winds, and high temps creeping up to right around freezing at 10,000'. On Sunday, we'll see increasing clouds and breezy SW winds ahead of a storm system that will track through to the north. A similar system moves through around Wed though we may see a little better chance for snow from that one. Long range models show a progressive storm pattern through the end of the month so let's hope some of it comes our way.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard SNOTEL (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson SNOTEL (8858')
Snowpack
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in all zones throughout Utah, and most of Colorado. This is due to a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow that formed near the snow surface during the extended dry period of Jan-Feb. This faceted weak layer now sits beneath a slab up to 2' deep. In my travels on the Manti-Skyline yesterday with forecaster Brett Kobernik, we met a party of snowmobilers who had remotely triggered a very large avalanche from below the slope. This was after we felt we were seeing some improvement in the stability over there. These are unusual conditions for this time of year. Time heals all wounds but I'm afraid this one is taking awhile, and the likelihood for triggering an avalanche on a steep, northerly facing slope remains very real.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been reported from the Abajo Mountains.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow sits beneath a slab 1'-2' thick. New and wind drifted snow now sits on top of this slab adding more stress to the buried weak layer. Human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer are likely, primarily on steep slopes facing NW-N-NE-E but W facing slopes are also suspect.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Shifting winds over the past few days have blown and drifted snow on to all aspects at upper elevations. SW winds yesterday created fresh drifts on northerly facing slopes. In these areas, newly drifted snow has added more weight and stress to the buried persistent weak layer increasing the likelihood for a deeper, more dangerous avalanche. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north side of the compass.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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