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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, February 3, 2024
The avalanche danger is HIGH. A foot or more of heavy, dense snow has created dangerous avalanche conditions and human triggered avalanches are likely. Avalanches triggered within the new snow have the potential to step down into buried weak layers causing much deeper and more dangerous avalanches. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding skills and know how to avoid avalanche terrain. This means staying off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
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Weather and Snow
A low pressure trough over the CO/NM border will continue to influence regional weather but the activity will be to the north and east of us. Today, look for mostly cloudy skies, winds from the NW increasing to 20 mph along ridge tops, and high temps in the low 20's. Sunday looks to be the only sunny day of the upcoming week, with another Atmospheric River poised to deliver the next round of snow Tue-Wed.
Camp Jackson received a foot of new snow at 1.5" of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) from yesterday's storm. Buckboard SNOTEL in lower North Creek is reporting 8" at 1.0" SWE. This is enough of a load to create dangerous avalanche conditions in most circumstances and with our weak, underlying snowpack, human triggered avalanches failing at the ground are possible. I'm uncertain as to whether this has been enough of a load to activate these buried, weak layers of sugary, faceted snow, but an avalanche breaking that deep could be un-survivable. Avoid being on or under steep slopes for the next several days until we can see how the snowpack has handled this most recent load.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.