Another sunny day is in store with light to moderate NW winds and high temps in the low to mid 20's. A shortwave trough moving into the region will bring snow to the north with little more than clouds and a very slight chance of precipitation to our area tonight and tomorrow. Dry conditions return Sunday and into early next week. Models are currently in disagreement over what happens after that but there are no obvious big storms on the horizon.
Snowpack Discussion
Warm temperatures and time have helped consolidate the snowpack, but weak layers are still present, especially in shady areas at higher elevations. In my travels through south-facing terrain in the La Sals yesterday, I found thin and variable snow cover and crusted surfaces. Soft settled powder still exists on sheltered, northerly aspects. Outward signs of instability are far and few between but on Wednesday, Chris Benson still experienced localized whumpfing on a ridgeline where the snowpack was thinner and weaker. A poor snowpack structure still exists and on slopes facing NW-N-SE a slab 1'-3' thick exists on top of buried, weak, facets. These slabs are becoming harder to trigger but once released they would produce deep and dangerous avalanches. Likely trigger points include shallower areas along slope margins, around sparse trees or rock outcroppings, or on repeat running slide paths. It's a gamble out there right now, and it's not a chance any of the forecasters or observers I know are willing to take.
Photo below illustrates the type of terrain that should still be avoided. Slope is: 1) steep 2) subject to wind loading 3) northerly facing and therefore harboring layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow.
Under the current conditions, tickling slopes from below can cause avalanches to release from above.
Steep north-facing terrain is the most likely place you can still trigger a deep, persistent-slab avalanche. This is an aerial photo of a NW aspect of Jackson Ridge taken on 2/23/2021. You can see that snow depth is variable, and winds have drifted snow, creating dangerous slabs over buried weak layers.
On SE aspects like this terrain on Abajo Peak, ridgelines are shallow, while more easterly aspects have been cross-loaded by winds over the last few weeks.
On Wednesday in the Abajo Mountains, I observed this avalanche on a NE aspect at 10,800' near Abajo Peak. This avalanche probably occurred sometime after Feb. 13th. Evidence of wind loading from the SW is visible in the left portion of the photo. With the current poor snowpack structure, this means many steep slopes are hanging in balance just waiting for a human trigger. Remember to avoid steep slopes with the same aspect, elevation, and configuration as recent avalanches.
